Probably the most anticipated altering of the guard moments set to occur in 2026, primarily based on every app’s present trajectory, is that Meta’s Twitter clone Threads is prone to overtake the app previously often known as Twitter, X, by way of energetic customers.
Which might mark a significant shift within the social media panorama, a variation from the established energy base inside the sector, and would basically be the ultimate line within the epitaph of what Twitter was once.
And based on some stats no less than, it’s already occurred, with Similarweb publishing knowledge which means that Threads has outdated X in day by day energetic customers, and is now clearly separating itself from the Elon Musk-owned app.
As you may see on this chart, based on Similarweb’s insights, Threads truly moved forward of X in day by day energetic customers in September final 12 months, and has since continued to extend its lead, regardless of X seeing some spikes round main information occasions.
A major win for Threads has been a rise in sports activities leagues and celebrities posting to the app, which is what Twitter was as soon as famend for, whereas real-time occasion protection can also be bettering on Threads, because it refines its algorithms, and appears to amplify extra newsworthy content material.
X, in the meantime, is leaning increasingly more into its Grok chatbot as a key part, which has seen AI posts taking up individuals’s feeds. Which may be the reason for the separation right here, although it’s also value digging into the nuance of this knowledge, with a purpose to get a real understanding of every app’s relative efficiency.
First off, this chart represents day by day energetic customers, not month-to-month, and the latter is the extra generally used comparative measure of efficiency in social media circles. At current, Threads has formally claimed to have 400 million month-to-month actives, whereas X claims 600 million, although I’ve many questions on X’s official counts.
For years, earlier than Elon Musk bought the app, Twitter had struggled to develop its person base, reaching a peak of 336 million month-to-month energetic customers in Q1 2018. Twitter was so pissed off by its stagnant development that it modified its categorization to “Information” on the App Retailer, as a substitute of “Social Media,” with a purpose to keep away from destructive comparability to Fb, which had continued so as to add tens of millions extra customers each quarter, hurting Twitter’s market standing (word: Twitter couldn’t swap to “Information” on Android as a result of Google restricts apps which are primarily UGC from this section).
When Elon Musk took over Twitter in 2022, the information protection round Musk’s takeover had seemingly boosted curiosity within the app, taking it as much as 368 million MAU, although as you might recall, Musk himself, in an effort to get out of his preliminary Twitter supply, speculated that no less than 20% of those customers had been bots, which he pledged to eradicate as a precedence. Musk has since claimed a number of instances that he has mounted the bot downside within the app.
But, for that to be true, he would have additionally needed to lower 20% of its person depend, which might imply that, in correcting for this, X would have began from a base of round 294 million actual MAU in 2022.
But, in July 2023, lower than a 12 months after taking the reigns on the app, Musk claimed that X had reached a brand new report of 540 million MAU.
So, one way or the other, X had nearly doubled Twitter’s long-standing person depend (accounting for bot removals), and that quantity has since ballooned to 600 million.
But, on the identical time, official documentation from X exhibits that its utilization has decreased, and third-party stories, like these notes from Similarweb, proceed to additionally present a decline in utilization.
As a result of X is now not a publicly listed firm, X’s person counts aren’t auditable, so it may possibly just about say no matter it needs, however I don’t consider that X is reaching report highs, particularly if its claims of addressing bot exercise have any substance.
Which ends up in one other level of rivalry with these numbers, as a result of Similarweb doesn’t have entry to X’s inner knowledge both, so there’s no means that these figures are 100% correct.
Similarweb’s knowledge is predicated on estimates, extrapolated from its out there pool of knowledge assets.
As defined by Similarweb:
“Our machine studying algorithms are fed by tens of millions of internet sites’ and apps’ first-party analytics, each proprietary and sourced by means of companions.”
So Similarweb has entry to a variety of sources, each by means of direct customers and companions, which it then makes use of for its estimates, by means of its personal methodology, to give you its numbers.
As such, these stats are precisely that, estimates, and aren’t definitive, whereas this chart additionally doesn’t embody net utilization, by which X clearly beats Threads.
Does that imply that X remains to be beating Threads in day by day energetic customers? I don’t know, and nobody outdoors of X actually does. And X’s workforce retains claiming report downloads, and regular will increase in utilization, so possibly, accounting for all of this, the chart above might not be consultant.
Which brings me to the following key query: Does this actually matter?
Certain, within the broader scheme of issues, from a wider business perspective, the truth that Threads could have outdated X as the primary real-time, text-based platform of alternative is large information, however for entrepreneurs seeking to maximize their efforts, the one actually related query is the place your target market is energetic. If X has fewer customers general, however your viewers is there, then that must be your precedence, and whereas the broader evaluation suggests, more and more, that this most likely isn’t the case, that particular viewers is who that you must be taking note of.
The one proviso I’d add to that is that X’s head of product Nikita Bier just lately revealed that the common X person solely views 20-30 posts within the app every day.
Which appears very low. Most individuals can be skimming by means of round 20 posts in lower than a minute, so primarily based on this, not many individuals, if they’re in your target market, are very energetic within the app.
The underside line is that that is all correlating knowledge primarily based on what we will see, as a result of X doesn’t share a lot inner perception.
However both means, it does appear that Threads is on observe to overcome X someday this 12 months.
