If Trump Loses The Election, X Will Additionally Lose Out Huge Time


I’ve been engaged on my predictions for social media in 2025, however there’s one notably well timed prognostication amongst them that may’t wait. Although it’s in all probability not a radical forecast for many who’ve been paying consideration.  

The way forward for the platform previously often called Twitter could be very a lot depending on the result of this week’s U.S. Presidential Election. If Trump wins, X, and proprietor Elon Musk, may even win huge, but when Trump loses, the reverse can be true. And given X’s broader struggles, I’m unsure it the platform will even survive one other yr if that’s the case.

Right here’s why:

Elon Musk has put his popularity on the road in backing Trump, and is doing all that he can to get Trump re-elected.

So why is Elon so devoted to Trump abruptly?

That’s an fascinating query, notably when as just lately as two years in the past, Musk stated:

Elon’s view, two years in the past, was that Trump was too previous to be President and triggered an excessive amount of distracting drama in his time in workplace.

And naturally, Trump, in his regular fashion, responded to Musk’s feedback:

Trump additional famous that Musk ought to deal with “getting himself out of the Twitter mess, as a result of he might owe $44 billion for one thing that’s maybe nugatory.” 

But, two years later, they’re brothers in arms, striving in direction of a purpose that Elon was clearly against, by utilizing the platform that Trump stated was nugatory.

Looks like an enormous shift, however actually, it’s far much less to do with aligning ideologies, as each males at the moment are eager to counsel, and much more to do with gaining energy, on either side of the equation.

Musk’s buy of Twitter comes all the way down to political affect, and having the ability to shift public opinion on insurance policies and politicians who oppose his varied plans.

We’ve seen this in motion, with Musk loudly and repeatedly attacking governments and regulators that he has an issue with, whereas both amplifying assist for many who work with him and his corporations, or quietly adhering to their requests.

The obvious instance is in Brazil, the place X just lately opposed a courtroom order to droop the profiles of customers recognized by Brazilian officers as distributing misinformation. That defiance led to X being banned in Brazil for a month, earlier than Elon and Co. finally determined to motion the Brazilian Authorities’s requests, with a purpose to be reinstated within the nation.

The Brazilian calls for relate to customers who’ve continued to say that the 2022 Brazilian election was “stolen,” which resulted within the ouster of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Varied investigations have been performed into these claims, and no proof has been discovered to assist such. And as this declare undermines the present authorities, Brazilian officers determined to quash them the place they will, by demanding that X, amongst others, de-platform these customers.

Musk refused to motion the request, then went on varied rants about corruption inside the Brazilian Authorities, and the Brazilian authorized system, whereas calling on Brazilians to vote out their authorities at subsequent alternative.

But, different governments have requested X to do the very same factor, in eradicating sure accounts on account of what they’ve deemed violations of native legal guidelines. And X has executed so, generally with a be aware about the way it’s against such. Nevertheless it’s actioned such requests anyway.

So why was Elon so riled up about Brazil, however not a lot in Turkey, regardless of the core concern being precisely the identical?

As a result of Musk misplaced cash when Bolsonaro was voted out, and he’s attempting to make use of his energy and affect at X to get again at those that’ve stymied his enterprise plans.

Bolsonaro and Musk had shaped a enterprise relationship that stood to grant Musk vital advantages for his tasks, together with favorable offers on lithium for Tesla from Brazil’s mines. Lithium is a key element of electrical automobile batteries, and Musk has been working with a number of South American area governments to get higher offers for the mineral.

Musk, for instance, established a lithium provide cope with Bolivia again in 2021, following the ousting of Bolivian President Evo Morales, who had been against permitting American corporations to come back in and take Bolivia’s sources.

Which, on the time, noticed Musk put up this tweet:

Musk coup tweet

That’s telling of his views on Twitter, and its capability for political affect, and it’s price additionally noting that following this tweet, Musk began shopping for up Twitter inventory, which finally led to him buying the app.

One other instance is Argentina, the place Musk has been effusive in his reward of President Javier Milei.

Guess who’s additionally been engaged on a lithium provide deal for Tesla? That’s proper, Milei met with Musk at Tesla’s Austin headquarters earlier this yr to debate potential lithium tasks.

Musk’s impetus is obvious in all of his dealings at X. X has readily actioned authorities requests from India, the place Tesla’s presently working in direction of the institution of recent distribution agreements for its autos. As per the above, X has additionally adhered to Turkish Authorities calls for, which is contemplating alternatives for each Tesla and Starlink.

The method is obvious, however the re-election of Trump is Musk’s key undertaking on this entrance, and his key promoting level for X as a political affect machine.

If Trump wins this week, Elon will be capable to entry new alternatives for X, both by authorities tasks or enterprise offers regarding that political affect. Which, once more, is the true play for Elon right here, in selling X as a way to sway voters, based mostly on his personal presence within the app, and his capacity to nudge platform approaches to profit no matter trigger he chooses.

A Trump win can be an Elon win on this respect, in endorsing his private energy to shift voting outcomes, which is one thing that he might promote to opposing events in lots of areas.

A Trump loss, nonetheless, would successfully kill off many, many alternatives for X.

And X must get again on observe. The corporate’s income is down someplace within the neighborhood of 70% from what it was earlier than Musk took over, whereas it’s additionally shedding hundreds of thousands of customers.

Advertisers proceed to distance themselves from Elon’s extra divisive method to platform administration, and there’s little cause for them to come back again. And whenever you couple that with the large debt burden that Elon has saddled the corporate with as a part of the funding for his takeover, and there’s no method that X is popping a revenue, of any sort, any time quickly.

Actually, X is on observe to put up a serious loss in 2024.

And if issues don’t flip round quickly, there’s solely a lot that Musk and his buyers will take in on this entrance, regardless of his private wealth.

So once more, the destiny of X could be very a lot linked to the destiny of Trump on this election. And if Trump loses, X, and Musk, can be in dire straits.

A Harris victory will put X on the quick observe to chapter, and if that occurs, I predict that Elon can be trying to get out of the social media enterprise within the second half of 2025.

Musk just lately famous in an interview that if Trump loses “I’m f***ed”. And whereas consultants don’t see the broader impacts of such hitting his different tasks, like Tesla or SpaceX, even when Harris wins, X can be in a a lot harder spot.

So other than TikTok doubtlessly being saved if Trump is returned to The White Home, the opposite social media angle, stemming direct from the vote, might be the eventual lack of X, and what’s left of Twitter within the app.



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *